Iran’s nuclear program has reached a decisive point, with the world watching closely. Almost a decade after a major deal was made to limit Iran’s nuclear activities, the country is now closer than ever to developing a nuclear weapon. With the deal set to expire soon, global powers are racing to find a solution.
How We Got Here ?
In 2015, world powers struck a deal with Iran to restrict its nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. However, in 2018, then-U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal and reimposed sanctions. In response, Iran gradually stopped following the agreement and increased its uranium enrichment, bringing it close to weapons-grade levels. Experts believe Iran could now produce enough material for a nuclear bomb in less than a week.
Diplomatic Efforts and Tension
Concerned about Iran’s progress, the U.S., UK, China, France, Germany, and Russia have intensified diplomatic efforts. The UN Security Council recently held a closed-door meeting, and China hosted talks with Iran and Russia, urging a peaceful resolution. Meanwhile, President Trump has taken a tough stance, imposing new sanctions and warning Iran to negotiate or face military action. A letter from Trump was delivered to Iran through the UAE, but its contents remain secret. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has rejected talks, calling the U.S. a “bully.” President Masoud Pezeshkian, who once supported reviving the deal, has also refused negotiations publicly. However, inside Iran, some favor talks while others push for nuclear weapons as a defense strategy.
Military Risks and Strategic Moves
Iran’s position is weakened after Israeli airstrikes last year reportedly damaged key air defenses protecting its nuclear sites. Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a direct threat and has hinted at possible further strikes. Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but international watchdogs are increasingly worried. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has grown rapidly, nearing weapons-grade levels. However, with Iran removing IAEA surveillance equipment, tracking its activities has become much harder. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has called for urgent diplomacy, warning that Iran’s nuclear program is expanding at a concerning rate.
Time is Running Out
On October 18, the ability to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran will expire. The UK, France, and Germany are considering using them before the deadline to pressure Iran into compliance.
Dr. Alexander Bollfrass, a nuclear expert, warns that if Iran decides to build a bomb, it could have enough weapons-grade uranium within weeks. However, designing and assembling a usable weapon could take months or longer.
“Iran is closer than ever to nuclear weapons capability,” he says.
“But it’s still unclear whether it plans to build a bomb or just gain leverage in negotiations.”
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